In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47 percent year-on-year
14. decembra je Chen Shihua, namestnik generalnega sekretarja Združenja proizvajalcev avtomobilov moje države, na vrhu o napovedih razvoja trga avtomobilov moje države za leto 2022 dejal, da se pričakuje, da bo prodaja novih avtomobilov v moji državi leta 2022 dosegla 27,5 milijona, letno-na-letno povečanje za 5,4 odstotka. Prodaja novih energetskih vozil bo dosegla 5 milijonov, kar je 47 odstotkov več-v-letnem obdobju. Težava z dobavo čipov bo še vedno prisotna prihodnje leto. Ponudba čipov bo dosegla tesno ravnovesje do konca prihodnjega leta.
Ponudba čipov bo prihodnje leto v tesnem ravnotežju
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percent . Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percent ; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 percent ; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
Kitajsko avtomobilsko združenje napoveduje, da bo trend avtomobilskega trga prihodnje leto nasproten, saj kaže značilnosti nizkega pred in visokega. Chen Shihua meni, da bo odprtje zimskih olimpijskih iger v prvi polovici prihodnjega leta imelo določen vpliv na proizvodnjo avtomobilskih{0}}podjetij na severu Kitajske, problem dobave čipov pa se bo nadaljeval do prihodnjega leta. Ponudba čipov bo dosegla tesno ravnovesje do konca prihodnjega leta.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent . Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6 percent ; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47 percent .
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
Trg novih energetskih vozil lahko vstopi v eksplozivno obdobje
Fu Bingfeng, izvršni podpredsednik in generalni sekretar Združenja proizvajalcev avtomobilov my country, je poudaril, da bo v letu 2021 povpraševanje potrošnikov na trgu še naprej kazalo trend izboljševanja in nadgradnje kakovosti, celotna proizvodnja in prodaja avtomobilov pa bosta še vedno ohranila stalno narašča in obstaja veliko svetlih točk. Kumulativna proizvodnja novih energetskih vozil je v prvih 11 mesecih presegla 3 milijone, obseg prodaje pa blizu 3 milijone. Pričakuje se, da bo letni obseg prodaje dosegel 3,4 milijona, kar pomeni 1,6-kratno povečanje -v-letnem obdobju. Trženje novih energetskih vozil je vstopilo v novo fazo eksplozivne rasti, ki se je iz politike{10}}usmerjala{11}}upravljala na trg-v preteklosti.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Wang Qing, namestnik direktorja Inštituta za tržno-ekonomsko raziskovanje Centra za razvojne raziskave Državnega sveta, napoveduje, da se bo povpraševanje po avtomobilih v letu 2022 še naprej rahlo povečalo. Obseg prodaje avtomobilov je približno 27 milijonov enot, kar je povečanje 3 odstotke -5 odstotkov letno-na leto, vzorec nizke vrednosti pred in visokega skozi vse leto pa bo ostal .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17 percent -18 percent in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16 percent . After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
V zvezi s tem Bai Ling, strokovnjak za industrijske raziskave iz oddelka za načrtovanje izdelkov v Chongqing Changanu, prav tako meni, da se bo leta 2022 trg novih energetskih vozil postopoma preoblikoval iz mrene v obliko vretena. Delež se bo postopoma povečeval.
