In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
Tej panogi najbolj manjka denar, temveč zrela tehnologija in operativna ekipa, s katero je mogoče tržiti komercialno.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
Ključ do tehničnega ozkega grla je v bateriji
Ne glede na to, ali je na Kitajskem ali po vsem svetu, obstaja zelo zrela tehnična podpora in proizvodni sistem za izdelavo školjk in sestavljanje vozil, tako da ni treba skrbeti preveč. Pri vozilih z novimi energenti, čeprav je razmeroma enostavno razviti potrošniške navade, če ni mogoče rešiti problemov predolgega časa polnjenja in prekratkega potovalnega dosega, je v primerjavi s klasičnimi vozili na gorivo oskrba z gorivom hitra, postaje pa gosto poseljene. Izgubil bo status novega favorita na trgu.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
Prvič, stroški gradnje samega mesta so zelo veliki, baterija pa potrebuje strokovno vzdrževanje. S kakšnim kapitalskim partnerjem lahko proizvajalec baterij sodeluje pri tem?
Drugi je, da ko potrošnik kupi avto, je baterijski modul v vozilu enakovreden plačilu varščine in najemu. Ta del naložbe lahko traja od 3 do 10 let, da se povrne. Kakšno podjetje lahko tako tvega?
Tretji je, da sedanji standardi baterij še niso poenoteni. Tako kot pri najzgodnejših mobilnih telefonih tudi standardnih modulov in poenotenih vmesnikov ni mogoče doseči. Kakšna podjetja imajo lahko tako{0}}v prihodnost usmerjene in razvojne zmogljivosti za oblikovanje in vodenje standardov?
Zato je trenutno najbolj realna rešitev še vedno hitro polnjenje in podaljšanje življenjske dobe baterije.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
Hkrati pa negativnega vpliva varnostne učinkovitosti ni mogoče podcenjevati. Na primer, po eksploziji mobilnih telefonov Samsung so velika letališča sprejela strožje predpise o prenašanju in uporabi litij{0}}ionskih baterij. Glavna težava je, da je težko doseči najučinkovitejšo kombinacijo gostote zmogljivosti in varnostne zmogljivosti baterije same. Trenutno ni bistvenega preboja. Celo grafen, ki je bil nekoč močno razglašen, je težko doseči obsežno{1}}komercialno množično proizvodnjo v treh do petih letih.
Jedro težav z viri je v litijevem kobaltu
V zadnjih treh letih se je cena osnovnih litijevih soli močno povečala. Od konca leta 2014 do 2017 se je povzpel z manj kot 40,000 yuan/ton na 180,000 yuan/ton, nato pa padel na približno 150,000 yuan/ton ob koncu leta. Cena baterijskega{8}}litijevega karbonata se je povečala za približno 4 do 5-krat.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400 percent increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50 percent increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached 29 per pound, but there is still more than 65 percent of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Ali cene zaradi pomanjkanja virov hitro rastejo? odgovor je negativen.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75 percent of the world's lithium resources.
V moji državi je 90 odstotkov virov litija razporejenih na zahodu, trenutno pa se pridobiva predvsem ruda litija (spodumen in lepidolit) in povprečna vsebnost je nizka (0,8 odstotka -1,4 odstotka, nižja od 1,465 odstotka v tujini - 3,55 odstotka), vsebnost magnezija v slanici pa je razmeroma visoka (razmerje Mg/Li je na splošno večje od 40, slano jezero Atacama v Čilu pa le 6,47), zato ga je težko uporabljati na industrijskem obsegu.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80 percent of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67 percent of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
Z izboljšanjem industrijske{0}}uporabe in prebojom v tehnologiji ekstrakcije, ki temelji na načelu, da litij, kobalt in drugi kovinski elementi ne izginejo, se je tiho pojavila industrija recikliranja litijevih baterij, recikliranje je postalo realnost in povpraševanje po naravnih virih se bo ustrezno zmanjšalo. Hitro rastoče stanje je kot zgodovina železove rude in je bolj posledica špekulacij o nadzoru mednarodnega kapitala, ki ne morejo v celoti odražati resničnega stanja industrijskega razvoja.
Ključno za pomisleke politike so subvencije
Pojasniti je treba osnovno razumevanje: bistvo državnih subvencij za nova energetska vozila je podpirati industrijo, ustvariti prednost-prvega uporabnika in hitro razširiti trg, ne pa subvencij, podobnih tradicionalnim kmetijskim sektorjem. Namen je ohraniti osnovno stabilnost diska. Zato bo v bližnji prihodnosti politika subvencioniranja zagotovo ukinjena.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Zdi se, da trenutna prodaja čistih električnih vozil, specifično za proizvodnjo, delovanje in prodajo izdelkov podjetij, raste počasi ali celo upada, kar je zelo povezano s podaljšanjem dobavne dobe na več kot 6 mesecev. Težava, ki jo odraža, je, da je dejanska proizvodna zmogljivost baterij za napajanje trenutno zelo omejena. V obstoječi tehnični poti, čeprav so povezana podjetja vlagala tudi v tovarne baterij in projekte osnovne litijeve soli (predvsem litijevega karbonata in litijevega hidroksida), vendar je čas cikla za načrtovanje, demonstracijo, načrtovanje, odobritev, gradnjo in proizvodnjo industrijskih projektov, zlasti kemična industrija, kjer se nahajajo osnovne litijeve soli, je običajno 1-2 leti, obsežna sprostitev proizvodnih zmogljivosti pa bi morala biti pred letom 2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery RD and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
Lahko rečemo, da je to najboljše obdobje za nova energetska vozila. Prihajajo nove sile in velika količina kapitala je bila vključena v vse vidike rudnikov, osnovnih litijevih soli, elektrodnih materialov, proizvodnje baterij in proizvodnje vozil na različne načine, in je zavezan izkoristiti priložnosti. Tudi tradicionalni velikani so se nenadoma prebudili, trdo delali, poskušali stabilizirati osnove in se razširiti na nova področja. Z eno besedo, tej panogi najbolj manjka denar, ampak zrele tehnologije, ki jih je mogoče uporabiti na trgu, in operativna ekipa, s katero je mogoče trgovati.
